Predictions for 2026

Every year people try to guess what will happen next year in tech, and almost everyone is wrong. But it’s fun so here are my predictions for 2026, and why I think they will happen.

But first, a message from my sponsor a blast from the past. Venturing deep into the past back to the final few days of 2023. Let’s see how I did trying to predict 2024. Why not last year? Because I forgot. Silly me!

Predictions for 2024

First, lets point and laugh and my incorrect predictions:

  • Temu gets shut down

  • Other companies will copy Apple and make their own AR/VR headsets Temu didn’t get shut down and the Apple Vision Pro didn’t influence the Meta Quest or anything else. Now, for the partially right:

  • Windows for arm will take off

  • Disney becomes less progressive While the introduction of Qualcomm chips in laptops improved the windows for Arm situation, the arm laptops didn’t sell very well. And whether Disney became less wokeprogressive that’s subjective, and I don’t really follow their movies any more. But in Elio, they forced any sort of LGBT and finding out your identity themes that were originally going to be there out, delaying the movie by a year. :shrug: Now, for what. I got correct. Are you proud of me yet mom?

  • iOS 18 will bring a redesign. Not a massive one, just a smaller one

  • Apple’s Vision Pro will have a small user base

  • AI will be shoved everywhere

  • Elon doesn’t sell Twitter / X

So I got some right, and some wrong.

Now that we talked about the past, it’s time to talk about the future.

My Predictions for 2026

OpenAI Goes Public

I think OpenAI will IPO in 2026. Why? To distance themselves from Microsoft. They restructured into a more traditional for-profit in late 2025, making it easier to raise money and more attractive to investors. During the restructuring, Microsoft picked up a 27% minority stake, worth roughly $135 billion. That gives Microsoft some influence, but the real stranglehold comes from IP deals, cloud contracts, and other long-term obligations.

An IPO would open OpenAI up to a much larger pool of investors, giving them more flexibility while reducing Microsoft’s influence. They would have to play by the rules of public markets, which usually means prioritising short-term results over long-term research. That is a trade-off, but it may be one OpenAI is willing to make if it means loosening Microsoft’s strangle hold.

It also just makes sense. AI development is moving fast, and OpenAI needs an enormous amount of compute. Training bigger and better models requires GPUs at massive scale, and selling stock is one of the most straightforward ways to fund the servers and infrastructure needed to stay competitive.

The next two predictions are intertwined.

Apple Buys an AI Lab, Perhaps Anthropic

Siri sucks, and Apple promised features two years ago at WWDC, which they couldn’t deliver. Therefore Apple is currently last in the AI race, so I’m sure they’re trying to find a way to get better and more competitive.

By buying an AI Lab, they can skip a lot of the research and development. This therefore means that they can release their models faster, making shareholders happy.

But why Anthropic? That leads me onto my third prediction:

Anthropic Gets Acquired

Whether by Apple or not, I think Anthropic will get bought. I can’t really justify this, but I have a gut feeling.

So why would Apple buy Anthropic specifically?

As I said, Apple wants to catch up in the AI race, and will probably buy an AI lab. I think Apple will buy Anthropic because they’re the only major US lab that doesn’t already have backing from a large company. OpenAI has Microsoft, Google Gemini has… Google, and Llama is Meta’s in-house lab. But Anthropic is independent, without a big corporation behind it.

Anthropic also has Claude Code, which Apple could integrate into Xcode to make it suck less. It would help them fix edit prediction and create an AI model that’s amazing at Swift.

Carrying on with Apple’s expansion into AI, I think they will reposition the Mac Pro, a neglected product that has been superseded by the Mac Studio, and turn it into a local AI powerhouse. I think It will have 2 M5 ultras, and RAM upgrades up to at least 1.5TB. This would mean that thanks to the unified memory architecture, the bottleneck of AI, RAM, will become basically negligible.

Windows Loses Significant Marketshare

Windows 11 sucks. Its filled with bloat, and AI slop and is generally a horrible experience. Windows 10 is reaching end of life, so many people are leaving that as well because of the security concerns. Therefore people don’t want to use Windows, so when they upgrade their machines, I think many of them will choose either Linux, or more likely MacBooks with MacOS. As of November 2025 Windows has 70% marketshare, MacOS has 13% and Linux has 3. I think Mac will get closer to 20%, and Linux will reach 5%, if not 10. Then Chromebooks & unknown are whatever.

OS Marketshare for Nov 25

GPT-6 Will Be a Massive Breakthrough

I think that when OpenAI releases GPT-6, most likely in the summer, it will be a massive leap, bringing it ahead of the beloved by developers Claude Opus 4.5. This is another gut feeling that I can’t really justify or articulate my reasoning for, but I feel like the GPT 5 series has been pretty incremental, and OpenAI is preparing for GPT 6. Will it be an architectural shift like with O1 and the reasoning models? Maybe. I don’t know how they’d change it but I feel like GPT 6 will be a huge improvement and the next “best model” for some time. It would also make sense launching it along side the IPO which I explained earlier.

This is what I think will happen in 2026. But 2026 is also an important year for me, since I will be taking my GCSEs in June.

GCSE Predictions

For those of you who haven’t been blessed by the British education system, GCSEs are the main exams UK students take at age 16, typically in 8-10 subjects. They’re graded from 9 (highest) to 1 (lowest). They’re important for getting into sixth form/college and eventually university.

Following my mock exams back in June and November, these are the results I think I will receive in August, on results day.

Core Subjects

These are the subjects I have to do. Namely Science, English Language & Literature and Maths.

I suck at English. It is my worst subject, and I think I will get a 7 in Language and a 6 in Literature. In June I ended up getting a 6 in Language. In November I got a 5+ in Literature, so not great. I mean a pass is a 4, so I got a “strong pass,” but eh.

Next its Maths. I think I will get a 7, maybe an 8. In both series of mocks, I got 6s. I think I can do better, and my main downfall is things I didn’t learn yet, since the mocks are just past papers and cover the whole curriculum while I was only half way and then 2/3rds of the way through the curriculum. So I’m going to blame the 6s on that, and say that after I learn everything, I’ll get a 7.

Finally Science, or more specifically Combined Science. This means that rather than taking Biology, Chemistry and Physics separately, its one combined subject worth “2 GCSEs”, meaning that its worth twice as much as the other subjects. For Science, I have 6 papers. However, I only ended up doing 4, due to content coverage and the amount of marking 6 papers would entail. In June, I did Biology paper 1, and Chemistry 1. I got a 5 and 8 respectively. In November, I did Biology 2 and Physics 1. I got an 8 and a 7 respectively. So my mock grades are a 5, 8, 8 and a 7. I guess I will get an 8-8 in the GCSE. Biology 1 was a fluke, and even it it wasn’t I’m sure Chemistry 2 and Physics 2 will keep me up. In fact, in biology, I was 2 marks away from a 9. So let’s treat the 5 as an anomaly.

Choice Subjects

Moving on we have the subjects that I chose to do. Unfortunately, I didn’t have complete freedom, having to pick 2 humanities (history/geography/religious studies/language). I chose Spanish and Geography. Why?

Because I enjoy Spanish and I always got basically full marks on every Spanish test I did in years 7-9. In the June mocks, I got 5s across the 4 tests — reading, writing, listening and speaking — but I was doing the foundation tier, meaning I couldn’t get anything above a 5. Basically full marks. In November I did higher, and I got a 9, 7 and a 5. I didn’t do the speaking exam, as I will do it in late January. For my actual GCSE, I think I will get an 8.

In Geography, at the end of Year 9 I got basically full marks on the end of year test, and I really liked my teacher. Unfortunately I didn’t get her for years 10 & 11, but my I also really like new teacher. In the June mocks, I got a 7, 2 marks off of an 8, and in November I got a 7 and a 5+ across the two papers, averaging to a 6, so worse than June. Overall I hope to get an 8.

Now we have my favourite subjects: Computer Science and Business.

For Computer Science, I’ve basically taught myself everything before I started year 10. I taught myself python at 10, and the content I watch on youtube has taught me everything else. The only thing I actually learnt in school was the Von Neumann architecture. In the June mocks I got an 8 and in November I also got an 8. So I think I will get a 9 in the actual exam.

Finally Business. From day 1 I’ve been getting the 8s and 9s on the tests, with 7s on both mocks. I think I’ll get a 9.

So to recap:

  • English Literature - 6
  • English Language - 7
  • Maths - 7
  • Science - 8-8
  • Geography - 8
  • Spanish - 8
  • Business - 9
  • Computer Science - 9

Thank you.